Professor Erol Kaymak Interview - Published in Revma - May 2009

http://www.revmamag.com.cy/ 

1.   Does the result reflect on the TC rejection of reunifications?

 No.  It reflects disillusionment with the CTP led government as well as with the ongoing negotiations.  This is not the same as rejecting a settlement (although it must be said that the fate of a future referendum is no longer something to be taken for granted).  The eternal problem remains that Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots have differing views regarding the form of reunification and to the extent that UBP has a say in the negotiations will prove difficult.  In fact, talks have already been complicated by differing views on ‘devolution’ (the Greek Cypriot preference) versus a new partnership of preexisting constituent states (the Turkish emphasis).  Also, we need to consider that Greek Cypriots are internally divided as well.  Thus it is difficult for me to say that anybody on the island is really committed to ‘reunification’.  

2.   How does it affect Turkey’s EU prospects?

None of this affects Turkey’s EU accession directly.  Turkey’s problem is that the EU will not conclude negotiations with Turkey prior to a settlement in Cyprus.  Moreover, in the interim, the EU has not opened various chapters for negotiation pending the extension of customs union to the Greek Cypriot led Republic of Cyprus.  So, if negotiations stall there is the potential for a crisis regarding the pace of negotiations, but it is not likely that the EU will declare Turkey no longer eligible for accession.  In the short run there may be a crisis but since the EU is not interested in admitting Turkey into the EU in the near future, the Cyprus conflict cannot be too high on the geopolitical agenda.  To the extent the matter is urgent for Cypriots and Turkey, it is plausible that there be a deal regarding the opening of ports and lifting the isolation of the Turkish Cypriots.  This has been attempted before, but since the sides have declared a comprehensive settlement preferable to interim deals, the current negotiations are expected to lead to an overall settlement that would also entail the normalization of relations between all parties.  Thereafter, Cyprus would no longer be a roadblock for Turkish accession to the EU.

3.   Will Mr.Talat negotiate now, under the supervision of Mr Eroglu?

No.  Both Talat and Eroglu know that they and Turkey cannot afford any major rift at the negotiation table, so the differences will be negotiated among them.  Eroglu has more immediate problems stemming from an economic and fiscal crisis.  However, if negotiations lead nowhere and there is no sign of a referendum by the end of the year, then Eroglu may run for the presidency in 2010.  Talat has already hinted more than once that if there is no settlement by then he may not run again anyway.  So, if there is conflict between Talat and Eroglu, I expect this to surface later in the year.  Also, we can anticipate a rift if there actually is a deal struck between Christofias and Talat, assuming Talat signs something that is not in full accord with Turkey’s views.  Overall, I do not anticipate such a scenario: it is more likely that if there is a deal that all sides will be obliged to promote it (unlike during the Annan Plan when both Denktash and Papadopoulos led public campaigns against).

4.   Mr Erdogan and Mr. Gul say they support Mr Talat. In their statements however they identify with Mr Eroglu’s two state approaches. Is there a hidden agenda in Ankara on Cyprus?

No.  Ankara is simply saying that we are in the middle of negotiations and they do not want Eroglu to produce ideas based on ‘confederalism’ to the extent that such positions will undermine Talat who is committed to the UN framework that promises the Turkish Cypriots a bizonal, bicommunal settlement based on political equality.  If the Turkish side were to deviate from this, Turkey would face more international pressure.  Then the customs union and other matters would also prove more problematic at the end of the year. 

All of this said, if negotiations actually do fail this year, or early next, we can anticipate that the Turkish Cypriots and Turkey could advocate new approaches or principles to solve the Cyprus conflict.  But, currently, Turkey remains committed to joining the EU, so Talat’s position remains official policy.